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Journal Article
Optimal Currency Hedging for International Equity Portfolios
October 18, 2018
We explore currency exposures in international equity portfolios by decomposing the optimal currency portfolio into a “hedge portfolio,” which minimizes equity volatility, and an “alpha seeking portfolio” based on the well-documented currency styles of value, momentum and carry.
Journal Article
Long Horizon Predictability: A Cautionary Tale
June 18, 2018
We show there is much less evidence of long-horizon return predictability than existing research suggests, casting doubt over claims about forecasts based on stock market valuations and factor timing.
Journal Article
Commodities for the Long Run
October 20, 2016
This paper analyzes a novel data set of commodity futures prices between 1877-2015, allowing us to show that returns do vary significantly across business cycles but can add value to a diversified portfolio from an asset allocation perspective.
Working Paper
The Complexity of Liquidity: The Extraordinary Case of Sovereign Bonds
August 1, 2016
We analyze the cross-section of developed countries’ bond spreads.We show that under certain conditions, especially credit deterioration and flight to quality, new issue, and more liquid, bond spreads tighten and become cheaper, not more expensive, relative to their less liquid counterparts.
White Paper
Risk Without Reward: The Case for Strategic FX Hedging
September 18, 2015
In the wake of losses associated with the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar between 2014 and 2015, we look at the long-term case for strategic currency hedging.
Book
How to Calculate Systemic Risk Surcharges
January 1, 2013
Many argue that financial regulation should focus on limiting systemic risk. This chapter examines one proposed regulatory idea: that each institution must face a "surcharge" based on the extent to which it is likely to contribute to systemic risk.
Book
Taxing Systemic Risk
November 29, 2011
How does one regulate systemic risk in the financial sector? We propose charging each financial firm a tax based on its expected loss during a systemic crisis.
Working Paper
Measuring Systemic Risk
April 23, 2010
We present a simple model of systemic risk and show how each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured and priced—its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized, which increases in its leverage, volatility, correlation, and tail-dependence.
Journal Article
Regulating Systemic Risk
May 1, 2009
Systemic risk is the risk that the failure and distress of a significant part of the financial sector reduces the availability of credit which in turn may adversely affect the real economy.
Book
Hedge Funds in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
March 1, 2009
There is little evidence to suggest that hedge funds caused the financial crisis or contributed to its severity in any significant way. However, they do have the potential to generate systemic risk. We outline four policy actions to address this.